Predictions 2010!

The last round of polling this cycle has been pretty terrible today. Are Dems really trailing by 15 points on the generic ballot? Is Dino Rossi really going to win in Washington? Is the Senate actually in doubt? What will this mean for your weekend?

Basically, things look pretty grim for tomorrow. The only question seems to be “how bad will it actually be?” I’ve tended to be more positive than most this cycle, but Democrats haven’t done much to confirm my optimism. So how terrible is it going to be waking up Wednesday? Here’s my absolutely unfounded and idle speculation for tomorrow.

1. Republicans’ biggest gains will come in the House. Nate Silver has it at 53 seats. That seems high to me, but not by much. Republicans need 40 seats to win control of the House, which they should grab pretty easily. I’d say they’ll reach about 47, giving them a razor thin majority with which to strangle themselves for two years.
2. Democrats’ biggest losers will be Blue Dogs and conservadems from the South and Midwest. Depending on how you look at it, this is either surprising or a tautology. On one hand, obviously Democrats are most vulnerable in places where there aren’t a lot of Democrats voting. On the other hand, for all the talk about liberals and scary big government, shouldn’t it be surprising that the most conservative, pro-business Democrats are the ones poised to get hit hardest? Well, it isn’t surprising to me, since I’ve said all along that Democrats don’t win by being fake Republicans, but I bet it will be surprising inside the beltway. The pruning of the caucus might help wake up some members of the tent, in any case.
3. Close Senate Races: Here’s my list of races to watch: KY, PA, WA, AK, WI, NV, WV, IL, and CO. Democrats will hold CA and CT, Republicans will take OH, FL, and disappointingly, NH. Of those 9 tossups, I’m leaning towards Republicans winning KY, PA, AK (in some form or another), and WV for 4. Democrats then take WA,NV, IL, WI and CO for 5, which would be an outstanding result. Of course, it would also mean I wasted all of my donations this year. I think I’m probably in the minority here, but I’m clinging to hope that the Reid machine in Nevada will carry him across the line, and I think Russ Feingold will shock everyone and pull it out in Wisconsin. The best possible outcome for Democrats is probably 55 seats. If Democrats have held the fort at 55 or even 54, I think you’re going to a pretty shocking results elsewhere.
4. Deval Patrick will hold on in MA. I would be surprised if it were closer than 5 points.
5. Bellweathers: For Democrats, winning the FL governor’s office and hanging on to the same seat in Ohio probably means it’s been a better-than-expected night. Holding West Virginia probably means the same thing. For Republicans, if Buck and Tancredo both win in CO, it’s probably the apocalypse and we should all start filling out our paperwork to move to Switzerland.
6. The media will come to all the wrong conclusions no matter what happens. No explanation necessary.
7. For Democrats, any scenario in which they hold one House of congress can be spun as a win, even if it’s only holding 51 seats in the Senate and losing 80 seats in the House. It’s not hard to spin having half of Congress and the Presidency to play with for 2 years as a win, even if it’s a bit facetious.
8. For Republicans, failing to win either house would be a disaster not seen in politics for years. Even if they have 50 seats in the Senate and 217 seats in the House, the party will be ripped apart over the next two years. Republicans absolutely have to win the House, and by a pretty good margin at that, to have any chance of holding the party together.
9. No matter what happens, the GOP Death Spiral will worsen over the next 2 years. The 2012 Republican Primary will be high entertainment, of course. But more than that, Republicans are going to face some serious problems in a divided government. They’ll probably face minor power struggles in the caucus as teabaggers try to oust establishment figures from power. They won’t be able to force through anything by way of campaign promises, especially since they’ve basically promised to bring American back to the 1830s. This will rile up the teabaggers even more, and they’ll be out for blood over the next primary season. Democrats will have their own problems, of course, but infighting for Democrats is like spinach. It rejuvenates them, revitalizes them, makes them tick. A Democratic party without infighting would be like the Tour de France without advanced doping techniques. Republicans, though, will not be able to deal with it. And how delicious would it be if the margin in the Senate was Scott McAdams sneaking into the Alaska Senate seat in a three way race? Fox News would explode.
10. Prop. 19 will fail. I haven’t written much about Prop. 19, which is surprising since it combines two of my favorite things: Weed and Direct Democracy. All there really is to say though, is that it’s absolutely staggering that people picked this cycle of all cycles to put it up for a vote. The best case scenario would be a high-turnout election with a relatively liberal tilt, like, you know, the exact opposite of this year. I’d be shocked if “Yes” gets even 45%. That said, I have to figure the trend has been accelerated, and the legalization question has become more a “when” than an “if”. It might win if it makes it back on the ballot in 2012, but in any case I think it will be legalized somewhere in this country before the decade is over. If I were guessing, I’d say California, Colorado, Oregon, or Washington. If I were hoping, I’d say Massachusetts.
11. Finally, on average, I think Democrats will do better than predicted. Hopelessly naive? Maybe, but I’m having a hard time accepting that likely voters haven’t changed at all since 1994. Maybe it’s only a 47 seat shellacking in the House and a 7 seat shellacking in the Senate. Not great, but hey, it could be worse.

So there you have it, on record for easy mocking later. I might pop in and out tomorrow night in a sort of live-blog, but I’ll definitely be back Wednesday for a postmortem detailing exactly how wrong I was. I hope you’ll join me!

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