As always, apologies for not posting more. Work has blah blah blah blah. You know all the excuses. But it’s time for a little election update now that we’re only a few weeks out from the midterms. I guess you might say the real reason I haven’t been posting much here is the fact that despite all my prognosticating, Democrats are poised to take a walloping on November 2nd. So what reasons do Democrats have to be happy? And in the grand scheme of things, what will the upcoming election mean?
I think it’s ok to be optimistic if you’re a Democrat for a few reasons. Right now, the smart money is Republicans to take the House with about 228 seats, while Democrats will retain the Senate with around 52 seats. That’s a pretty big drubbing right there. On the other hand, this is literally the worst possible environment for Democrats. the media narrative since about January 2009 has been that Democrats are going to get smoked and bad. But look at those numbers again. 228 seats in the house is a 20 seat majority. That’s not exactly nothing, but 20 seats in the House isn’t exactly the Politburo. So if, after the worst cycle in 15 years, the Democrats come out of it with a 20 seat deficit in the House and a 2 seat advantage in the Senate, that’s not much of a permanent Republican majority, is it? I mean, with Obama back on the ticket in 2012, I’d fully expect Democrats to end up closer to where they are today than where they will be on November 3rd.
That’s another reason Democrats can be optimistic. Obama will win reelection in 2012. He’s pretty popular considering the narrative, and most pundits blame Democratic disillusionment for the upcoming trouncing. They’ll be back on board in 2012. Right now, people seem to think Mitt Romney is posed to become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. I think that speaks for itself.
In a strange way, losing the House might be the best thing Democrats could hope for. Their narrative of intractable Republicans blocking things to the detriment of the country is a winner*, but it’s hard to make it stick when your highest profile spats have been within your own party. If Syracuse’s mascot John Boehner has his bloated orange face in front of the cameras as Speaker every day, that message becomes a lot more salient. When Darrel Issa starts investigating minorities for having the gall to be given loans, or when Michele Bachmann is calling for hearings into Obama’s birth certificate, America will really get a chance to see which party has the adults and which has the children. Republicans could win just enough seats to strangle themselves.
*It worked for Harry Truman in ’48, don’tcha know?
And let’s not forget, America is expecting the world of Republicans on November 2nd. Democrats are still, according to 538, 3:1 against to retain the house, and about 1:3 favorites to hold the Senate. But expectations are sky-high for Republicans right now. I get the impression that failing to win the Senate would be viewed as a wash, while failing to win the House would be a disaster. It may not be very likely, but if by some accident of chance, Democrats over-perform on Election Day, you’ll see some fireworks in the GOP you haven’t seen since Reconstruction. Establishment Republicans will blame the Teabaggers, Teabaggers will blame the Establishment. Jim DeMint will attack John Cornyn with a cane on the Senate floor. Sarah Palin will call for the assassination of Richard Nixon. It could get ugly.
The GOP as we know it is fading away. Don’t let any credulous media types tell you otherwise, no matter what happens on Election Day. This bump is the last gasp of a dying man. Either they win enough seats to tie up Washington for 2 years and drive the country into the ground, or they don’t and the party rips itself apart in spectacular fashion. There’s not really a middle ground here. So yes, I’ll be depressed on Election night. You probably will too, because it likely means a return to insanity. But on November 3rd, take a deep breath, look at the landscape, and realize that nothing has really changed.
well, there’s always “the rent is too damn high” party to consider…..a viable alternative?
They certainly have the lead in the awesome facial hair race.